Elaboration of a markov model of project success

Abstract

The development of software and the creation on its basis of models that reflect the main features of project management systems is
an important task of project management. Despite the significant differences between the types of projects and the variety of
conditions for their implementation, assessments of the effectiveness / success of projects should be carried out in a certain way
uniformly, on the basis of common justified principles. This article discusses the construction of a matrix of "strong connectivity" for
the methodological principles of assessing the effectiveness / success of projects based on a directed graph. Methodological, the most
general principles that ensure, when applied, the rational behavior of stakeholders regardless of the nature and objectives of the
project. All of the above principles for evaluating the effectiveness / success of projects are interconnected. In order to show the
topology and directions of the interconnections of methodological principles, it is necessary to draw up a matrix diagram. With its
help, it can determine the relationship between methodological principles. The matrix diagram often called the matrix of connections,
shows the degree of dependence of the criteria of one on another, how strong are the connections between them. The resulting matrix
illustrates the relationship between all methodological principles and indicates that relying on only one of the methodological
principles for evaluating the effectiveness / success of projects, we can conclude that the mission / project is effective / successful.
Presentation of modeling data based on the analysis of the structure of relations between elements allows also to determine the areas
of greatest attention from the project manager. In particular, we can make an assumption, by analogy with the Pareto rule, that the
maximum managerial effect can be expected from the control of some factors. The developed model allows to evaluate the
effectiveness of project activities on the basis of only one from all indicators of the methodological principles of project evaluation.